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AI Bottleneck Baskets

Curated, equal-weight baskets of public companies tracking the bottlenecks in the AI buildout — from memory and photonics to power, grid, and packaging.

  • 800 VDC Architecture — Semiconductor and power supply suppliers enabling the shift to 800 VDC rack distribution in AI data centers — spanning GaN and SiC wide-bandgap power ICs (Navitas, Wolfspeed), high-density PMICs and power-stage chips (MPWR, ADI, TXN, ON, STM, POWI, AOSL, Renesas), rack-level power conversion modules (Vicor), broad-line power analog (Infineon), circuit protection for high-voltage DC bus fault handling (Littelfuse), and power supply OEMs (Delta Electronics) that convert facility AC into the high-voltage DC bus enabling denser, more efficient AI compute. The 800 VDC architecture reduces conversion stages and copper bulk versus legacy 54 VDC systems, directly improving AI token-per-watt economics. (NVTS, MPWR, TXN, STM, POWI, ON, AOSL, VICR, ADI, IFNNY, WOLF, 2308.TW, 6963.T, 6504.T, 6723.T, LFUS, DIOD, 6415)
  • AI Cloud / Neoclouds — GPU cloud operators, miner-to-HPC converters, and AI infrastructure ODMs capturing the accelerated compute buildout — spanning pure-play AI cloud platforms (CoreWeave, Nebius), energy infrastructure operators pivoting Bitcoin mining sites to AI/HPC workloads (IREN, Hut 8, TeraWulf, Applied Digital, Cipher Digital, Bitdeer), and hyperscale server ODMs and AI cluster integrators (Supermicro, Wiwynn, Celestica, Penguin Solutions) directly levered to GPU fleet deployment at scale. (IREN, NBIS, CRWV, CLS, APLD, HUT, WULF, SMCI, PENG, CIFR, BTDR, 6669.TW, RIOT, MARA, GLXY, 2382.TW, 2317.TW, CORZ)
  • Cooling — Thermal management suppliers across the full data-center cooling stack — direct liquid cooling and immersion systems (Vertiv, Modine, Envicool), campus evaporative cooling towers (SPX Technologies/MARLEY), precision air handling and humidity control (Munters), precision air and chiller systems (Trane, AAON, Carrier, JCI, Lennox), liquid-loop flow control and pressure management (Watts Water), thermal-management enclosures and liquid-distribution units (nVent), and integrated building-efficiency and power-management platforms (Schneider Electric). (VRT, MOD, NVT, JCI, TT, AAON, CARR, SBGSY, LII, WTS, SPXC, 002837.SZ, MTRS, 6367.T, ASTK, 6594.T, 2308.TW)
  • Custom Silicon — Chip architects, ASIC design-services firms, and EDA enablers powering AI workloads — GPU designers (NVDA, AMD), CPU-ISA licensors (ARM), FPGA makers (LSCC), custom ASIC/XPU specialists (AVGO, MRVL, CBRS, INTC, QCOM), pure-play hyperscaler ASIC design services (Alchip/3661, Global Unichip/3443, MediaTek's co-design work on Google TPU), and the EDA duopoly (Synopsys, Cadence) whose tools are a prerequisite for every custom chip tape-out — collectively underpinning AI training clusters, inference deployments, and AI-accelerated edge devices. (MRVL, AVGO, NVDA, AMD, INTC, ARM, QCOM, CBRS, LSCC, 3661, 3443, SNPS, CDNS, 3035, 6526.T, 2454.TW, 6533, 6643)
  • HBM / Packaging — Advanced packaging equipment, test systems, and process materials enabling HBM stacking and heterogeneous AI chip integration — spanning TCB and die bonding (Besi, Kulicke & Soffa, ASMPT), OSAT foundries (Amkor, ASX), wafer inspection and metrology (Camtek, Onto, Nova), handler and probe-card test (Cohu, FormFactor), the ATE memory-test duopoly (Teradyne, Advantest), precision dicing (Disco), and specialty process chemicals and CMP materials (Entegris). (CAMT, ONTO, ENTG, COHU, AMKR, ASX, FORM, 6146.T, BESIY, KLIC, TER, 6857.T, NVMI, ASMPT, 6239.TW, 2449, 042700.KS, SMHN.DE, 002156.SZ, 067310.KQ, JCET)
  • InP & Substrates — III-V and wide-bandgap compound semiconductor supply chain — InP/GaAs substrates and gallium processing (AXT, Dowa), specialty compound-semi materials (5N Plus), epi wafers and laser-diode chips (IQE, LandMark), SOI and engineered substrates (Soitec), SiC wafers and GaN-on-SiC epitaxy (Wolfspeed), MOCVD growth tools (Veeco, Aixtron), compound-semi foundries (Tower Semiconductor, Win Semi), and RF/photonic IC designers leveraging compound-semi processes (MACOM, Qorvo, Skyworks) — enabling datacenter optical interconnect, high-frequency RF, power electronics, and the ex-China supply alternatives made strategically critical by China's gallium and germanium export controls. (AXTI, MTSI, SOI, IQEPY, VECO, QRVO, TSEM, AIXA, 3105, 5714.T, WOLF, SWKS, VNP.TO, 3081, 600703.SS, 6963.T, 688234.SS)
  • Lithography & Fab Tools — Leading-edge semiconductor equipment and process materials suppliers — EUV and DUV lithography systems (ASML, Nikon), etch/deposition (Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron), ALD and epitaxy (ASM International), process control and yield management (KLA), photomasks (Photronics), ion implant (Axcelis), gas/RF delivery and fluid/chemical delivery subsystems (MKS, Ultra Clean, Ichor), and photoresists plus silicon wafers (Shin-Etsu Chemical) — alongside TSMC as the primary foundry beneficiary of the AI-driven front-end capex supercycle. (ASML, TSM, LRCX, KLAC, AMAT, MKSI, UCTT, ACLS, PLAB, 8035.T, ASMI, 4063.T, 7731.T, 7735.T, AEIS, SMHN.DE, ICHR)
  • Memory Supercycle — DRAM, HBM, NAND, and memory-interface suppliers riding the AI-driven bandwidth and capacity upcycle — the three HBM and DRAM giants (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron), the NAND fabs (SanDisk, Kioxia), Taiwan's DRAM tier and NOR specialists (Nanya, Winbond, Macronix), NAND-controller and UFS-IC makers (Phison, Silicon Motion), and the HBM-interface IP licensor whose DDR5/HBM chip portfolio sits inside every AI server memory module (Rambus) — collectively positioned to capture the sustained upshift in memory bandwidth per GPU accelerator. (MU, SNDK, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, 2408, SIMO, 2337, RMBS, 8299, 285A.T, 2344, 603986.SS, 6770.TW, 688008.SS, 3260.TW, 3006.TW, 301308.SZ, 688525.SS, 8271.TW, 2451.TW)
  • Networking / Retimers — Switch ASICs, PCIe/CXL smart retimers, SerDes chiplets, active electrical cable DSPs, and optical-electrical bridge chipsets forming the high-bandwidth interconnect layer of AI training clusters — spanning custom switch silicon (AVGO Tomahawk/Jericho, MRVL Prestera/Kinetic, NVDA Spectrum), AI fabric system OEMs (ANET, CSCO), PCIe/CXL smart retimers and active copper cable ICs (ALAB, Parade/4966, MCHP Switchtec), next-gen SerDes chiplets and AEC DSPs (CRDO, AWE Alphawave), PAM4 optical bridge chips and transceiver DSPs (MXL, COHR), signal-integrity ICs for 100G-800G optical links (SMTC), memory/CXL interconnect silicon and IP (RMBS, 688008.SS Montage), and custom AI/networking ASIC design services (3661 Alchip). (ALAB, CRDO, ANET, CSCO, MXL, MRVL, AVGO, AWE, SMTC, NVDA, 4966, MCHP, RMBS, 688008.SS, 3661, COHR)
  • Photonics / CPO — Full-stack photonics supply chain for AI-scale optical interconnect — optical transceiver OEMs and contract assemblers (Coherent, Lumentum, AAOI, Fabrinet), the three dominant China-based AI transceiver suppliers ramping 800G/1.6T volume for hyperscalers (Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink, Accelink), co-packaged optics and photonic IC platforms (POET, Lightwave Logic, Marvell), photonic/RF ICs for optical transport — TIAs, laser drivers, PIN diodes (MACOM), coherent networking systems (Ciena, Nokia including its acquired Infinera optical portfolio), high-frequency III-V photonic semiconductor components (Sivers Semiconductors), and precision photonic sensing and emitter components including InGaAs detectors, avalanche photodiodes, and laser diodes (Hamamatsu Photonics) — serving the 800G/1.6T transceiver ramp and co-packaged optics transition at hyperscale AI data centers. (COHR, LITE, FN, CIEN, POET, SIVE.ST, AAOI, NOK, LWLG, MRVL, 6965.T, 300308.SZ, 300502.SZ, 0877.HK, 002281.SZ, AVGO, 000988.SZ, MTSI)
  • Power & Grid — Electricity generation, grid infrastructure, and on-site power supply serving the AI data-center energy surge — spanning nuclear fleet operators under data-center PPAs (CEG, VST, TLN), gas turbine and grid-equipment OEMs (GEV), small modular reactor developers (NuScale, Oklo), nuclear component manufacturers (BWXT), power management and switchgear (Eaton, Hubbell, Powell), on-site and backup generation (Bloom Energy, Generac), grid-scale battery storage (Fluence), superconductor grid-protection (AMSC), and high-density rack power conversion (Vicor). (GEV, TLN, CEG, VST, POWL, AMSC, BE, ETN, HUBB, VICR, GNRC, FLNC, BWXT, OKLO, SMR, NEE, CCJ, LEU, D)
  • Precision Bearings Basket — Precision bearings as the architecture-agnostic picks-and-shovels play for the robotics & industrial automation supercycle. Bearings are required in every motor and rotating joint of a robot or machine. Demand scales directly with robot complexity (degrees of freedom). Morgan Stanley research positions bearings as a core, low-risk robotics play with explosive growth projected in the robot bearings market through 2050 — tens of billions of units sold and hundreds of billions in value — driven by surging installed bases across humanoids, autonomous vehicles, service robots, and industrial automation. Very low substitution/obsolescence risk. OpenAI has flagged precision bearings as one of the critical components for U.S. robotics hardware manufacturing. The industry is highly consolidated among global leaders in high-precision segments needed for next-gen robotics. (RBC, TKR, RRX, SKF-B.ST, 6471.T, 6472.T, 6473.T, 6479.T, SHA.DE, 6480.T, 6481.T, 2049.TW, 6268.T, 6324.T)
  • Connectors & Interconnect — High-speed electrical connectors (Amphenol, TE Connectivity, Hirose Electric), optical fiber and copper cabling (Corning, Prysmian, Belden, Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric), and power/signal connectivity components (Bel Fuse) forming the physical layer of hyperscale AI data-center builds. (APH, TEL, GLW, BDC, BELFB, 5802.T, 6806.T, PRYMF, 5801.T)
  • Construction & MEP — Electrical, mechanical, and specialty contractors executing the multi-year data-center build-out wave — spanning high-voltage T&D infrastructure, power-line construction, and fiber deployment (Quanta, MasTec, Dycom, MYR Group, Primoris), full MEP commissioning and HVAC installation (EMCOR, Comfort Systems), data center campus site development and e-infrastructure earthworks (Sterling Infrastructure), and fire protection, life safety, and specialty contracting for critical facilities (API Group). (PWR, EME, FIX, MTZ, DY, MYRG, PRIM, STRL, APG)
  • Golden Dome & Space Defense — Public companies levered to the shift toward space-based and proliferated-LEO missile defense — the "Golden Dome" architecture. SpaceX (private; IPO ticker SPCX) is the catalyst, pairing launch, a satellite constellation, and orbital power into a platform that could pivot toward directed-energy and missile-tracking defense. This basket tracks the investable public names: missile-defense and directed-energy primes (LMT, NOC, RTX, LHX, GD), missile-defense sensors and mission-critical structures (DRS, KRMN), space-systems and launch pure-plays (RKLB, RDW, ASTS, IRDM, VOYG), AI-driven battlespace command-and-control software (PLTR), rugged/rad-hard mission compute (MRCY, CW), drones and targets (KTOS), and high-power laser makers (LASR). Not investment advice. (RKLB, LMT, NOC, RTX, LHX, KTOS, MRCY, CW, LASR, RDW, ASTS, IRDM, SPCX, KRMN, DRS, GD, PLTR, VOYG)
  • Outliers — High-conviction AI infrastructure names that don't fit a single thematic basket: wafer-level SiC/GaN burn-in and package test (AEHR), analog and RF specialty foundry (GFS), MEMS-based precision network timing ICs (SITM), precision power sub-systems for semiconductor etch and deposition tools (AEIS), magnetic current-sensing ICs for AI rack power monitoring (ALGM), AI edge vision SoCs for cameras and robotics (AMBA), machine-vision inspection and robotic-guidance systems (CGNX), edge-AI DSP and NPU IP licensing (CEVA), and silicon wafer supply — the critical substrate underpinning all leading-edge AI chip fabs (SUMCO/3436.T). (AEHR, GFS, SITM, AEIS, ALGM, AMBA, 3436.T, CEVA, CGNX)
  • Rare Earths — Rare-earth miners, critical-mineral processors, and alternative-source developers challenging China's export-control dominance — spanning the world's largest ex-China NdPr producer (Lynas/LYC.AX), Australia's standalone REE refinery builder (Iluka/ILU.AX) and Nolans NdPr project developer (Arafura/ARU), US mine-to-magnet verticals (MP Materials, USAR, ALOY), early-stage ex-China rare-earth exploration (Critical Metals Corp/CRML in Greenland), and uranium/REE co-processing (Energy Fuels) — covering the full ex-China supply chain from mine to separated oxide. (MP, ALOY, USAR, UUUU, LYC.AX, ILU.AX, ARU, CRML)
  • Storage — Enterprise storage systems, flash arrays, nearline HDD/NAND, HCI platforms, data management software, and cyber-resilience platforms scaling to absorb AI training-dataset volume and model-checkpoint I/O — spanning nearline HDD leaders (Seagate, WDC), all-flash array and cloud-connected storage (Pure Storage, NetApp, Backblaze), HCI and software-defined storage for AI inference clusters (Nutanix), data protection and ransomware-resilience software (Commvault), and infrastructure OEMs with deep storage portfolios supplying hyperscalers and enterprises (Dell, HPE). (STX, WDC, NTAP, PSTG, DELL, HPE, NTNX, CVLT, BLZE)

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