POET Technologies ($POET) and Sivers Semiconductors ($2DG.F) stock after Marvell ($MRVL) cancelled the Celestial AI co-packaged-optics (CPO) orders — what it means for each stock, the CPO laser supply chain ($LITE Lumentum, $COHR Coherent), and the AI photonics trade, with a live supply-chain map.
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According to POET Technologies' April 27, 2026 press release, $MRVL terminated the Celestial AI-related POs after a confidentiality breach. $POET's CFO discussed purchase order timing, shipment schedules and Marvell-specific deal mechanics in a podcast interview, which Marvell determined was a violation of the NDA covering the relationship. The technology itself was not the problem; the disclosure was.
Co-packaged optics is a data-center networking architecture where the optical engine (modulators, photodetectors, multiplexers) sits inside the same package as the switch ASIC or AI accelerator, instead of inside a pluggable transceiver at the faceplate. This shortens the high-speed electrical path from inches to millimeters, cuts power per bit by roughly 2–4×, and enables 1.6 Tbps+ per port at the densities AI fabrics need. The laser that produces the light stays external (in an external light source / ELS module) so it isn't cooked by the 700 W+ ASIC next to it.
The merchant short list for high-power, hyperscale-qualified continuous-wave DFB lasers in CPO ELS modules is: $LITE (Lumentum), $COHR (Coherent), Furukawa ($5801.T), and $2DG.F (Sivers Semiconductors). The integration partners around them — $POET (Optical Interposer), Ayar Labs (TeraPHY), Lightmatter (Passage), $AVGO (TH5/TH6 CPO), $INTC (silicon photonics), $MRVL (Celestial AI Photonic Fabric) — all need lasers from one of those four merchant suppliers, plus increasingly hyperscaler-internal sources.
This post is not investment advice. The structural argument is that the laser bottleneck for AI CPO is genuine and $2DG.F is one of four merchant suppliers that can fill it at hyperscale qualification. The near-term argument is that the $POET cancellation slips visibility into 2026 revenue and increases concentration risk perception until a new diversifying customer is announced. Both are true at once. Pull the full Sivers Semiconductors ($2DG.F) supply chain graph and the silicon photonics & optical interconnects trend on Macroplane before deciding.
The next two catalysts to watch are (1) POET's next quarterly update — whether the H1 2026 prototype milestone is reaffirmed or re-guided — and (2) any new hyperscale or Tier-1 transceiver customer announcement that backfills the Celestial AI socket. A dilutive raise into weakness is the genuine bear case; a quiet re-engagement with $MRVL once NDAs get patched is the genuine bull case. The technology itself (the wafer-level Optical Interposer™ with passive alignment) is real and qualified by other customers.
$MRVL closed the $3.25B acquisition of Celestial AI on February 2, 2026. The acquisition brings Marvell the Photonic Fabric — Celestial AI's optical interconnect technology for scale-up AI clusters — and the engineering team behind it. The Photonic Fabric still needs high-power InP CW lasers as light sources regardless of which integrator $MRVL chooses for the optical interposer layer. That is why the laser-supplier bottleneck argument survives even when individual integration partners get reshuffled.