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Fermi Stock ($FRMI): The Pre-Revenue Bet on Building the Grid and the Data Center at Once

2026-06-20

Fermi stock ($FRMI) deep dive: Rick Perry's 17 GW Project Matador power-and-data-center campus, the AP1000 nuclear and gas plan, why the anchor tenant walked and the stock fell 80%, the supply chain, and Fermi vs Vistra ($VST).

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Fermi Stock ($FRMI): The Pre-Revenue Bet on Building the Grid and the Data Center at Once (2026)

Fermi ($FRMI) is a development-stage REIT trying to build Project Matador, a planned 11-to-17 GW behind-the-meter power-and-data-center campus in the Texas Panhandle, co-founded by former US Energy Secretary Rick Perry. It has zero revenue, no signed anchor tenant, and a market cap near $5.5B. The stock is down roughly 70% from its first day of trading after its primary customer walked away in December 2025. This is a look at what Fermi has actually committed to, what it has not, and why the whole equity is a bet on one signature it hasn't gotten yet.

👉 See it in context: $FRMI competes for the same AI-power dollars as the operators in the Power & Grid basket on Macroplane — $VST, $CEG, $GEV, $OKLO and the rest of the names actually selling electrons today.

Fermi stock: what's driving the price

Fermi stock has been one of 2026's sharpest round-trips. The setup:

  • A blockbuster IPO. Fermi priced its IPO at $21 a share on 1 October 2025, sold 32.5 million shares to raise about $682.5M, and dual-listed on Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange. The stock opened at $25, closed its first day at $32.53, and the offering valued the company near $14B — for a business founded nine months earlier with no operating revenue (Haynes Boone).
  • The anchor tenant walked. On 11 December 2025 Fermi disclosed that its primary prospective tenant had terminated a $150M "Advance in Aid of Construction" agreement — the non-dilutive funding that was supposed to help pay for the campus. The stock dropped about 34% in a day and kept sliding, bottoming near $5 by March 2026, more than 80% below its highs (Kavout).
  • Securities suits followed. Multiple firms filed class actions alleging Fermi overstated tenant demand and funding for Project Matador in its IPO materials (BFA Law).
  • An OpenAI-shaped bounce. Through June 2026 the stock has rallied on reports that OpenAI is negotiating a ~10 GW data-center lease in Ohio with Nvidia ($NVDA) backing — read by traders as proof that hyperscaler power demand at Project Matador's scale is real and unplaced. The shares jumped on the news even though Fermi still hasn't named a tenant (ts2.tech).

So the price isn't tracking earnings — there are none. It tracks one question: will a hyperscaler sign a multi-gigawatt lease at a campus that is still mostly permits and dirt?

What Fermi is actually building

Project Matador, branded the "HyperGrid," is a roughly 5,800-acre campus near Amarillo, Texas. The plan is to generate power on-site and lease it — together with the buildings — to AI tenants, so the data centers never touch the public grid. Fermi calls it the largest energy-and-data complex in the US, and the numbers are deliberately enormous:

  • Up to 17 GW of planned on-site generation, raised from an original 11 GW pitch — enough to power millions of homes.
  • A power mix of natural gas, nuclear, solar, wind, and battery storage, with gas first and nuclear as the long-term base load.
  • 18 million square feet of data-center space designed across the site.
  • A target of the first ~1 GW online by the end of 2026 and the first million square feet of space in 2026.

The structure matters: Fermi is a REIT — a landlord. It does not run the GPUs. It develops the land, builds the power and the shells, and collects long-term lease payments from whoever fills them. That is the same picks-and-shovels logic behind the rest of the data-center power trade, pushed to its extreme: own the megawatts, rent them to the AI build-out.

The nuclear plan

The headline that got Fermi attention is nuclear. The long-term base load for Project Matador is meant to come from four Westinghouse AP1000 reactors — about 4 GW — and the company has lined up the supply chain to build them:

  • Westinghouse designs the AP1000, the same reactor going into Georgia's Vogtle units. It is privately held (owned by Brookfield and Cameco), so there's no direct ticker to buy.
  • Doosan Enerbility, the Korean heavy-industry group, signed on to begin forging the long-lead-time components — reactor pressure vessels and steam generators — that take years to produce and usually gate any nuclear timeline.
  • Hyundai Engineering & Construction took the front-end engineering design (FEED) contract, with a full engineering-procurement-construction (EPC) deal expected to follow in early 2026.
  • The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepted Fermi's combined license application for the four-unit plant — the start of a multi-year licensing process, not the end (World Nuclear News).

The reactors are real engineering commitments, but they are a 2030s story. No AP1000 in the US has ever been built on its original schedule or budget — Vogtle ran years late and billions over. Fermi's nuclear base load is the part of the pitch that will take the longest and cost the most.

The gas bridge

What actually powers Project Matador's first phase is gas, not atoms. Fermi has acquired more than 600 MW of natural-gas turbines and won preliminary approval from the State of Texas for the first 6 GW of gas generation on the site. Gas is what gets the first ~1 GW to a tenant by late 2026; nuclear, solar, and storage layer in over the following decade.

This is the same bet GE Vernova ($GEV) is monetizing across the industry: gas turbines are sold out for years because they are the only dispatchable power that can be stood up fast enough to meet AI demand. Fermi is buying into that queue rather than waiting for reactors. The risk is that buying turbines and permitting gas is the easy 10% — finding the tenant and financing the other $30B-plus is the hard part.

The Pantex edge

One genuinely differentiated asset: location. The campus sits next to the DOE's Pantex Plant, the only facility in the US that assembles and disassembles nuclear weapons. That adjacency gives Fermi built-in physical security, an existing federal-security footprint, and a "critical defense infrastructure" designation under executive order. For a campus pitching itself to government and frontier-AI tenants who care about secure, sovereign compute, sitting next to the nation's warhead plant is a moat competitors can't replicate.

Fermi's supply chain, mapped

Open $FRMI on Macroplane and the supply-chain graph is nearly empty — and that absence is the point. The deals Fermi has signed are all upstream, the inputs to a campus:

  • Upstream (it's buying): Westinghouse for reactor design, Doosan for forgings, Hyundai E&C for engineering and construction, gas-turbine OEMs in the mold of $GEV, and a long bill of materials for switchgear, transformers, and cooling that the Power & Grid and Construction & MEP names supply.
  • Downstream (it's selling to): nobody, yet. The anchor tenant terminated. Management says it is in "active discussions with multiple prospective tenants," but there is no binding customer.

A REIT with a supplier list and no tenant is a construction project, not a cash flow. Everything downstream of the campus is still a slide.

The risks

  • No revenue, no customer. This is the whole story. $FRMI is pre-revenue, posted a $486M net loss for 2025, and lost the one tenant agreement it had. The equity is an option on signing a hyperscaler.
  • Litigation overhang. Active securities class actions allege the IPO misrepresented tenant demand and funding.
  • Capital intensity. Building 17 GW of generation plus 18 million square feet of data center runs to tens of billions. Fermi ended 2025 with about $409M in cash. The gap gets filled with debt, equity raises, and tenant pre-payments it doesn't yet have — heavy dilution risk.
  • Nuclear timeline. The AP1000 base load is a decade-long, over-budget-prone undertaking. Treat it as optionality, not near-term power.
  • Execution from a standing start. The company was incorporated in January 2025 and had roughly 35 employees as of its latest profile. It is attempting one of the largest energy projects ever proposed.

The catalysts

  • A signed anchor tenant. One multi-gigawatt lease with a hyperscaler-scale customer — an OpenAI, an Oracle, a frontier lab — would re-rate the stock more than anything else. It is the bull case in a single press release.
  • First gas power in 2026. Energizing the first ~1 GW would prove the company can actually build, not just permit.
  • The AP1000 EPC signing. Converting the Hyundai FEED into a binding EPC contract in early 2026 would harden the nuclear plan.
  • Federal tailwinds. Executive-order support for domestic nuclear and the Pantex defense designation keep Fermi aligned with US energy-security policy.

Fermi vs Vistra: two ways to sell power to AI

Readers keep comparing Fermi to Vistra ($VST), and the pairing is useful precisely because the two are opposites. Both are Texas-based, both pitch nuclear-plus-gas power to AI data centers — but one sells electrons from plants that exist, and the other sells a render.

Vistra is an 1882-vintage integrated power producer with about 41 GW of generation running today across gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and storage, roughly 5 million retail customers, and $5B-plus of EBITDA. Crucially, it has already signed the contracts Fermi is chasing: a 20-year PPA with Amazon ($AMZN) for up to 1,200 MW from its Comanche Peak nuclear plant in Texas (whose NRC license now runs to 2053), and about 2,609 MW of 20-year nuclear supply to Meta ($META) across its PJM plants. That's roughly 3.8 GW of signed, decades-long AI-power demand against generation Vistra already owns. The market has rewarded it: ~$46B market cap, a stock that's compounded on the same AI-power wave as $CEG and $TLN.

Fermi is the venture-stage mirror image. It owns no operating generation, has no customers, and carries a ~$5.5B market cap entirely on the promise of a 17 GW campus. Vistra is what Fermi wants to become in a decade; Fermi is the call option on whether a brand-new developer can leapfrog into the incumbents' market.

Fermi ($FRMI)Vistra ($VST)
What it isDevelopment-stage power-and-data-center REITIntegrated power producer + retailer
Generation operating today~0 GW (permits + turbines)~41 GW (gas, nuclear, coal, solar, storage)
Revenue$0Tens of billions; $5B+ EBITDA
Signed AI-power contractsNone (anchor tenant terminated)~3.8 GW (Amazon at Comanche Peak, Meta in PJM)
Nuclear4× AP1000 planned (2030s, licensing)Comanche Peak operating to 2053
Market cap~$5.5B~$46B
The betWill it sign a hyperscaler and get built?Will AI demand keep re-rating existing nuclear?

Different risk entirely. $VST is a cash-generating incumbent re-rating on AI demand; $FRMI is a binary on execution and a signature. Track both in the Power & Grid basket.

What is Fermi Inc ($FRMI)?

Fermi ($FRMI) is a development-stage real estate investment trust building Project Matador, a planned behind-the-meter power-and-data-center campus near Amarillo, Texas. It was co-founded by former US Energy Secretary Rick Perry and CEO Toby Neugebauer, incorporated in January 2025, and went public on Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange in October 2025. It generates no revenue yet and intends to make money by leasing on-site power and data-center space to AI tenants.

Why did Fermi stock drop?

Fermi stock fell more than 80% from its highs after disclosing on 11 December 2025 that its primary prospective tenant had terminated a $150M construction-funding agreement. Because the company is pre-revenue and the entire thesis depends on signing tenants, losing its anchor customer gutted the stock and triggered securities class-action lawsuits alleging the IPO overstated tenant demand and funding.

Does Fermi have any customers?

As of mid-2026, no. Fermi's one disclosed anchor-tenant agreement was terminated in December 2025. Management says it is in active discussions with multiple prospective tenants but has not announced a binding lease. The June 2026 rally was driven by reports of OpenAI's separate multi-gigawatt data-center demand, not by any Fermi contract.

Is Fermi a REIT?

Yes — Fermi is structured as a specialty REIT. It plans to own the land, power generation, and data-center buildings of Project Matador and earn long-term lease income from tenants, rather than operating compute itself. That makes it a landlord-and-utility hybrid for AI infrastructure rather than a cloud or chip company.

What is Project Matador / the HyperGrid?

Project Matador is Fermi's flagship campus: roughly 5,800 acres near Amarillo, next to the DOE's Pantex plant, designed for up to 17 GW of on-site generation (gas, nuclear, solar, wind, battery) and 18 million square feet of data centers. The "HyperGrid" branding refers to powering the data centers entirely from on-site generation, independent of the public grid. The first ~1 GW is targeted for late 2026, powered initially by natural gas.

Fermi vs Vistra — which is the safer way to play AI power?

They're different risk profiles. Vistra ($VST) is a ~$46B operating power producer with ~41 GW running, ~5 million customers, and signed 20-year nuclear PPAs with Amazon and Meta — a cash-generating incumbent re-rating on AI demand. Fermi ($FRMI) is a pre-revenue developer with no operating power and no signed tenant, so it's a high-variance bet on execution. Vistra is the lower-risk, already-contracted exposure; Fermi is the speculative option on a new entrant getting built. This is not financial advice — review the filings and size for the risk.

Is Fermi stock a buy?

That depends entirely on your tolerance for binary, pre-revenue risk. The bull case: a uniquely sited 17 GW campus next to Pantex, a Rick Perry-led team with regulatory pull, signed reactor and gas supply deals, and a market starved for AI power. The bear case: zero revenue, a $486M loss, an anchor tenant that already walked, active securities litigation, a tens-of-billions funding gap, and a nuclear base load a decade out. The equity is an option on signing a hyperscaler. This is not financial advice — read the 10-K and the lawsuit complaints before sizing anything.

Related reading

  • Data Center Stocks: The Picks-and-Shovels Guide — where on-site power fits the build-out
  • SMR Stocks: The Complete Investor Guide — the nuclear-for-AI thesis
  • Oklo Stock ($OKLO): The SMR Bet on Powering AI — another pre-revenue power story
  • GE Vernova Stock ($GEV): The Gas-and-Grid AI Trade — the turbine queue Fermi is buying into
  • Power & Grid basket — live performance for the AI-power operators, including $VST

What is Fermi Inc ($FRMI)?

Fermi ($FRMI) is a development-stage real estate investment trust building Project Matador, a planned behind-the-meter power-and-data-center campus near Amarillo, Texas. It was co-founded by former US Energy Secretary Rick Perry and CEO Toby Neugebauer, incorporated in January 2025, and went public on Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange in October 2025. It generates no revenue yet and intends to make money by leasing on-site power and data-center space to AI tenants.

Why did Fermi stock drop?

Fermi stock fell more than 80% from its highs after disclosing on 11 December 2025 that its primary prospective tenant had terminated a $150M construction-funding agreement. Because the company is pre-revenue and the entire thesis depends on signing tenants, losing its anchor customer gutted the stock and triggered securities class-action lawsuits alleging the IPO overstated tenant demand and funding.

Does Fermi have any customers?

As of mid-2026, no. Fermi's one disclosed anchor-tenant agreement was terminated in December 2025. Management says it is in active discussions with multiple prospective tenants but has not announced a binding lease. The June 2026 rally was driven by reports of OpenAI's separate multi-gigawatt data-center demand, not by any Fermi contract.

Is Fermi a REIT?

Yes — Fermi is structured as a specialty REIT. It plans to own the land, power generation, and data-center buildings of Project Matador and earn long-term lease income from tenants, rather than operating compute itself. That makes it a landlord-and-utility hybrid for AI infrastructure rather than a cloud or chip company.

What is Project Matador / the HyperGrid?

Project Matador is Fermi's flagship campus: roughly 5,800 acres near Amarillo, next to the DOE's Pantex plant, designed for up to 17 GW of on-site generation (gas, nuclear, solar, wind, battery) and 18 million square feet of data centers. The "HyperGrid" branding refers to powering the data centers entirely from on-site generation, independent of the public grid. The first ~1 GW is targeted for late 2026, powered initially by natural gas.

Fermi vs Vistra — which is the safer way to play AI power?

They're different risk profiles. Vistra ($VST) is a ~$46B operating power producer with ~41 GW running, ~5 million customers, and signed 20-year nuclear PPAs with Amazon and Meta — a cash-generating incumbent re-rating on AI demand. Fermi ($FRMI) is a pre-revenue developer with no operating power and no signed tenant, so it's a high-variance bet on execution. Vistra is the lower-risk, already-contracted exposure; Fermi is the speculative option on a new entrant getting built. This is not financial advice — review the filings and size for the risk.

Is Fermi stock a buy?

That depends entirely on your tolerance for binary, pre-revenue risk. The bull case: a uniquely sited 17 GW campus next to Pantex, a Rick Perry-led team with regulatory pull, signed reactor and gas supply deals, and a market starved for AI power. The bear case: zero revenue, a $486M loss, an anchor tenant that already walked, active securities litigation, a tens-of-billions funding gap, and a nuclear base load a decade out. The equity is an option on signing a hyperscaler. This is not financial advice — read the 10-K and the lawsuit complaints before sizing anything.

Referenced on this page

  • Power & Grid basket
  • data-center power trade
  • Construction & MEP
  • SMR Stocks: The Complete Investor Guide
  • Oklo Stock ($OKLO): The SMR Bet on Powering AI
  • GE Vernova Stock ($GEV): The Gas-and-Grid AI Trade