20-yr MSFT Three Mile Island restart + Meta Clinton

AI supply-chain thesis — mapping bottlenecks, focus companies, and supply-chain exposure for investors.

**Bottleneck theme:** Power & Grid **Focus:** $CEG — Constellation Energy Corp Constellation owns the largest U.S. nuclear fleet and has become the listed-equity poster child for hyperscaler 24/7 carbon-free power contracting. The 20-year Microsoft PPA on the Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart (rebranded "Crane Clean Energy Center") and the Meta agreement on Clinton mark a structural rerating: nuclear baseload that previously cleared at $30-40/MWh is being contracted at $80-110+/MWh under multi-decade hyperscaler PPAs, dramatically improving the unit economics of an asset class the market had written off as commodity merchant generation. The investment case: every additional gigawatt of contracted nuclear or hydro is a multi-billion-dollar NPV gain at current PPA pricing. Constellation has additional uprate optionality (the dual-unit Byron, Braidwood, LaSalle, and Limerick stations), additional restart candidates beyond TMI, and a retail / commercial book that smooths merchant exposure. Risks: FERC regulatory friction on hyperscaler co-location structures, operational risk from any multi-month nuclear outage (penalty provisions on 20-year contracts), and a stock that has rerated as much as 5x from 2023 — the easy money has been made. Pair with $VST (similar nuclear story, different fleet), $TLN (Susquehanna AWS PPA), and $NRG.

Focus companies in this thesis (1)

Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)

Supply-chain categories covered

EV Powertrain — Electric vehicle motors, inverters, and drivetrain components
Power Grid Equipment — Transformers, switchgear, and grid infrastructure
Utilities — Electric utilities operating transmission and distribution grids facing transformer bottlenecks.
Data Center Infrastructure — Servers, racks, cooling, and power systems for data centers
Hyperscalers — Major cloud operators (AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Naver) and tier-2 / neocloud providers (DigitalOcean, OVHcloud, Rackspace, Kingsoft) tracked as a demand signal across multiple theses (photonics, HBM, AI accelerators, power, cooling). Excludes SaaS apps, telcos, REITs, and IT services firms.
Nuclear Technology — Nuclear reactors, fuel assemblies, and nuclear services
Natural Gas Turbines — Gas turbines and generators providing primary power generation for data centers, enabling high-capacity on-site power.

Thesis milestones & bottleneck markers

Meta Clinton online — Meta Clinton data center reaches commercial operation
Three Mile Island restart — CEG — $CEG restarts TMI Unit 1 for MSFT
Nuclear capacity addition — CEG — $CEG adds nuclear capacity (GW)
$CEG revenue growth — CEG — Annual revenue growth
$CEG EBITDA margin — CEG — EBITDA margin expansion from nuclear restart

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